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Tryavna vs Etar VT II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Tryavna
Tryavna
FT
1 – 1
Etar VT II
Etar VT II
9/9/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 2Stadion Angel Kanchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tryavna44%
×Draw24%
Etar VT II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tryavna
1.70
Etar VT II
1.45

Tryavna creates 17% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 85 away

creates per match

Tryavna
1.05
Etar VT II
0.85

allows per match

Tryavna
2.05
Etar VT II
2.35

finishing

Tryavna+0.00on par
Etar VT II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tryavna ↓

Etar VT II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tryavna or draw
67%
Tryavna or Etar VT II
76%
Draw or Etar VT II
56%

Winning margin

Tryavna wins by 2+
23%
Etar VT II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tryavna 1+ goals
82%
Tryavna 2+ goals
51%
Tryavna 3+ goals
24%
Etar VT II 1+ goals
77%
Etar VT II 2+ goals
42%
Etar VT II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tryavna (draw refunded)
57%
Etar VT II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tryavna at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 38 matches

Etar VT II away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.35 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tryavna attack 1.05 + Etar VT II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.70

Etar VT II attack 0.85 + Tryavna defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tryavna scores more
44%
level
24%
Etar VT II scores more
33%

Tryavna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tryavna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tryavna vs Etar VT II

Tryavna and Etar VT II drew 1-1 in Third League - Northwest on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Angel Kanchev in Tryavna.