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Etar VT II vs Tryavna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Etar VT II
Etar VT II
FT
8 – 1
Tryavna
Tryavna
2/28/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 19Stadion Trifon Ivanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Etar VT II64%
×Draw19%
Tryavna18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etar VT II
2.40
Tryavna
1.19

Etar VT II creates 102% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 39 away

creates per match

Etar VT II
1.89
Tryavna
0.62

allows per match

Etar VT II
1.75
Tryavna
2.90

finishing

Etar VT II+0.00on par
Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar VT II ↓

Tryavna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Etar VT II or draw
82%
Etar VT II or Tryavna
81%
Draw or Tryavna
36%

Winning margin

Etar VT II wins by 2+
42%
Tryavna wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Etar VT II 1+ goals
91%
Etar VT II 2+ goals
69%
Etar VT II 3+ goals
42%
Tryavna 1+ goals
70%
Tryavna 2+ goals
33%
Tryavna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Etar VT II (draw refunded)
78%
Tryavna (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar VT II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.75 · 83 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar VT II attack 1.89 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.40

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Etar VT II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Etar VT II scores more
64%
level
19%
Tryavna scores more
18%

Etar VT II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Etar VT II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Etar VT II 8–1 Tryavna

Etar VT II beat Tryavna 8-1 in Third League - Northwest on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Trifon Ivanov in Veliko Tarnovo.