Tryavna 2–1 Drenovets: Result & Stats

Tryavna

FT

2 – 1

Drenovets

9/27/2020

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 8Stadion Angel Kanchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tryavna47%

×Draw23%

Drenovets30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TryavnaExpected goals in this matchDrenovets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.40

Tryavna

1.81

Drenovets

1.40

Tryavna creates 29% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 68 away

1.05

creates per match

0.76

2.05

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Tryavna

1.05

Drenovets

0.76

allows per match

Tryavna

2.05

Drenovets

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tryavna+0.00on par

Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tryavna ↓

Drenovets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Tryavna or draw

70%

Tryavna or Drenovets

77%

Draw or Drenovets

53%

Winning margin

Tryavna wins by 2+

26%

Drenovets wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tryavna 1+ goals

84%

Tryavna 2+ goals

54%

Tryavna 3+ goals

27%

Drenovets 1+ goals

75%

Drenovets 2+ goals

41%

Drenovets 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tryavna (draw refunded)

61%

Drenovets (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tryavna at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 38 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tryavna attack 1.05 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.81

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Tryavna defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tryavna scores more

47%

level

23%

Drenovets scores more

30%

Tryavna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tryavna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff