Drenovets 4–3 Tryavna: Result & Stats

Drenovets

FT

4 – 3

Tryavna

9/8/2019

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 5Stadion Drenovets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Drenovets66%

×Draw18%

Tryavna16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DrenovetsExpected goals in this matchTryavna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.11

Drenovets

2.43

Tryavna

1.11

Drenovets creates 119% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 39 away

1.96

creates per match

0.62

1.61

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Drenovets

1.96

Tryavna

0.62

allows per match

Drenovets

1.61

Tryavna

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drenovets+0.00on par

Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drenovets ↓

Tryavna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Drenovets or draw

84%

Drenovets or Tryavna

82%

Draw or Tryavna

34%

Winning margin

Drenovets wins by 2+

44%

Tryavna wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Drenovets 1+ goals

91%

Drenovets 2+ goals

69%

Drenovets 3+ goals

43%

Tryavna 1+ goals

67%

Tryavna 2+ goals

30%

Tryavna 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Drenovets (draw refunded)

81%

Tryavna (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drenovets at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.61 · 67 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drenovets attack 1.96 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.43

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Drenovets defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Drenovets scores more

66%

level

18%

Tryavna scores more

16%

Drenovets at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Drenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff