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Trutnov vs Hradec Králové II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Trutnov
Trutnov
CANC
13:00
Hradec Králové II
Hradec Králové II
2/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Trutnov76%
×Draw12%
Hradec Králové II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trutnov
4.00
Hradec Králové II
1.63

Trutnov creates 145% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Trutnov
4.25
Hradec Králové II
0.50

allows per match

Trutnov
2.75
Hradec Králové II
3.75

finishing

Trutnov+0.00on par
Hradec Králové II+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trutnov ↓

Hradec Králové II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

Trutnov or draw
88%
Trutnov or Hradec Králové II
88%
Draw or Hradec Králové II
24%

Winning margin

Trutnov wins by 2+
59%
Hradec Králové II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Trutnov 1+ goals
98%
Trutnov 2+ goals
90%
Trutnov 3+ goals
73%
Hradec Králové II 1+ goals
80%
Hradec Králové II 2+ goals
48%
Hradec Králové II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Trutnov (draw refunded)
87%
Hradec Králové II (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trutnov at home — creates 4.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Hradec Králové II away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trutnov attack 4.25 + Hradec Králové II defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 4.00

Hradec Králové II attack 0.50 + Trutnov defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Trutnov scores more
76%
level
12%
Hradec Králové II scores more
12%

Trutnov at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Trutnov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Trutnov face Hradec Králové II (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Trutnov hosting Hradec Králové II. Match starts February 10, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.