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Hradec Králové II vs Trutnov — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hradec Králové II
Hradec Králové II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Trutnov
Trutnov
1/31/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hradec Králové II54%
×Draw19%
Trutnov26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hradec Králové II
2.48
Trutnov
1.70

Hradec Králové II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hradec Králové II
2.75
Trutnov
1.40

allows per match

Hradec Králové II
2.00
Trutnov
2.20

finishing

Hradec Králové II+0.00on par
Trutnov+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové II ↓

Trutnov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Hradec Králové II or draw
74%
Hradec Králové II or Trutnov
81%
Draw or Trutnov
46%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové II wins by 2+
34%
Trutnov wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hradec Králové II 1+ goals
92%
Hradec Králové II 2+ goals
70%
Hradec Králové II 3+ goals
44%
Trutnov 1+ goals
82%
Trutnov 2+ goals
51%
Trutnov 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové II (draw refunded)
67%
Trutnov (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové II at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Trutnov away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové II attack 2.75 + Trutnov defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.48

Trutnov attack 1.40 + Hradec Králové II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hradec Králové II scores more
54%
level
19%
Trutnov scores more
26%

Hradec Králové II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hradec Králové II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hradec Králové II vs Trutnov

Hradec Králové II beat Trutnov 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2026.