Trujillo 1–0 Extremadura UD II: Result & Stats

Trujillo

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Extremadura UD II

1/4/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 19Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Trujillo40%

×Draw28%

Extremadura UD II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrujilloExpected goals in this matchExtremadura UD II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.04

Trujillo

1.23

Extremadura UD II

1.04

Trujillo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 42 away

1.21

creates per match

0.93

1.16

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Trujillo

1.21

Extremadura UD II

0.93

allows per match

Trujillo

1.16

Extremadura UD II

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trujillo+0.00on par

Extremadura UD II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillo ↓

Extremadura UD II →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Trujillo or draw

69%

Trujillo or Extremadura UD II

72%

Draw or Extremadura UD II

60%

Winning margin

Trujillo wins by 2+

18%

Extremadura UD II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Trujillo 1+ goals

71%

Trujillo 2+ goals

35%

Trujillo 3+ goals

13%

Extremadura UD II 1+ goals

65%

Extremadura UD II 2+ goals

28%

Extremadura UD II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Trujillo (draw refunded)

57%

Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Trujillo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.16 · 94 matches

Extremadura UD II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Trujillo attack 1.21 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Extremadura UD II attack 0.93 + Trujillo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trujillo scores more

40%

level

28%

Extremadura UD II scores more

31%

Trujillo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trujillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Trujillo 1–0 Extremadura UD II

Trujillo beat Extremadura UD II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 4, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana in Trujillo.

Trujillo vs Extremadura UD II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Trujillo 1–0 Extremadura UD II