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Extremadura UD II vs Trujillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
CANC
22:00
Trujillo
Trujillo
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 38Polideportivo Municipal Tomás de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Extremadura UD II42%
×Draw27%
Trujillo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura UD II
1.36
Trujillo
1.11

Extremadura UD II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 92 away

creates per match

Extremadura UD II
1.35
Trujillo
1.03

allows per match

Extremadura UD II
1.20
Trujillo
1.37

finishing

Extremadura UD II+0.00on par
Trujillo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura UD II ↓

Trujillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Extremadura UD II or draw
69%
Extremadura UD II or Trujillo
73%
Draw or Trujillo
58%

Winning margin

Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
20%
Trujillo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
74%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
39%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
16%
Trujillo 1+ goals
67%
Trujillo 2+ goals
30%
Trujillo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
58%
Trujillo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura UD II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 40 matches

Trujillo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura UD II attack 1.35 + Trujillo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.36

Trujillo attack 1.03 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Extremadura UD II scores more
42%
level
27%
Trujillo scores more
31%

Extremadura UD II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Extremadura UD II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Extremadura UD II face Trujillo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 returns with Extremadura UD II hosting Trujillo. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Extremadura UD II host Trujillo at Polideportivo Municipal Tomás de la Hera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.