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Trujillanos FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Segunda División 2018

Trujillanos FC
Trujillanos FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
7/30/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 1st Phase - 16Estadio José Alberto Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Trujillanos FC52%
×Draw26%
Llaneros de Guanare22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trujillanos FC
1.48
Llaneros de Guanare
0.85

Trujillanos FC creates 74% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 43 away

creates per match

Trujillanos FC
1.43
Llaneros de Guanare
0.93

allows per match

Trujillanos FC
0.77
Llaneros de Guanare
1.53

finishing

Trujillanos FC+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillanos FC ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Trujillanos FC or draw
78%
Trujillanos FC or Llaneros de Guanare
74%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
48%

Winning margin

Trujillanos FC wins by 2+
26%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Trujillanos FC 1+ goals
77%
Trujillanos FC 2+ goals
43%
Trujillanos FC 3+ goals
19%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
57%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
21%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Trujillanos FC (draw refunded)
71%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trujillanos FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.77 · 56 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trujillanos FC attack 1.43 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Llaneros de Guanare attack 0.93 + Trujillanos FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Trujillanos FC scores more
52%
level
26%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
22%

Trujillanos FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Trujillanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Trujillanos FC 3–0 Llaneros de Guanare

Trujillanos FC beat Llaneros de Guanare 3-0 in Segunda División on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio José Alberto Pérez in Valera.