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Trujillanos FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Primera División 2018

Trujillanos FC
Trujillanos FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
5/5/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 17Estadio José Alberto Pérez (Valera)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Trujillanos FC42%
×Draw23%
Llaneros de Guanare35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trujillanos FC
1.72
Llaneros de Guanare
1.54

Trujillanos FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 20 away

creates per match

Trujillanos FC
0.94
Llaneros de Guanare
1.45

allows per match

Trujillanos FC
1.64
Llaneros de Guanare
2.50

finishing

Trujillanos FC+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillanos FC ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Trujillanos FC or draw
65%
Trujillanos FC or Llaneros de Guanare
77%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
58%

Winning margin

Trujillanos FC wins by 2+
22%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Trujillanos FC 1+ goals
82%
Trujillanos FC 2+ goals
51%
Trujillanos FC 3+ goals
25%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
79%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
45%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Trujillanos FC (draw refunded)
55%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trujillanos FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.64 · 67 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trujillanos FC attack 0.94 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.72

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.45 + Trujillanos FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Trujillanos FC scores more
42%
level
23%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
35%

Trujillanos FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Trujillanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trujillanos FC vs Llaneros de Guanare

Llaneros de Guanare beat Trujillanos FC 3-1 in Primera División on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio José Alberto Pérez (Valera).