Trujillanos FC 0–2 Deportivo La Guaira

Trujillanos FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo La Guaira

11/22/2020

Primera División · Group A - 12Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Trujillanos FC28%

×Draw26%

Deportivo La Guaira45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trujillanos FCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Guaira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.43

Trujillanos FC

1.07

Deportivo La Guaira

1.43

Deportivo La Guaira creates 34% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 148 away

0.94

creates per match

1.22

1.64

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Trujillanos FC

0.94

Deportivo La Guaira

1.22

allows per match

Trujillanos FC

1.64

Deportivo La Guaira

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trujillanos FC+0.00on par

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillanos FC ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Trujillanos FC or draw

55%

Trujillanos FC or Deportivo La Guaira

74%

Draw or Deportivo La Guaira

72%

Winning margin

Trujillanos FC wins by 2+

11%

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Trujillanos FC 1+ goals

66%

Trujillanos FC 2+ goals

29%

Trujillanos FC 3+ goals

9%

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

42%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Trujillanos FC (draw refunded)

38%

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trujillanos FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.64 · 67 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trujillanos FC attack 0.94 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.22 + Trujillanos FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Trujillanos FC scores more

28%

level

26%

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

45%

Deportivo La Guaira at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff