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Deportivo La Guaira vs Trujillanos FC — Primera División 2018

Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Trujillanos FC
Trujillanos FC
10/20/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Group A - 3Complejo Deportivo Socialista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira57%
×Draw24%
Trujillanos FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Guaira
1.73
Trujillanos FC
0.91

Deportivo La Guaira creates 90% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 66 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira
1.49
Trujillanos FC
0.92

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira
0.89
Trujillanos FC
1.98

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par
Trujillanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

Trujillanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw
80%
Deportivo La Guaira or Trujillanos FC
76%
Draw or Trujillanos FC
43%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
32%
Trujillanos FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
82%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
52%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
25%
Trujillanos FC 1+ goals
60%
Trujillanos FC 2+ goals
23%
Trujillanos FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
74%
Trujillanos FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches

Trujillanos FC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.49 + Trujillanos FC defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.73

Trujillanos FC attack 0.92 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more
57%
level
24%
Trujillanos FC scores more
20%

Deportivo La Guaira at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Deportivo La Guaira 1–2 Trujillanos FC

Trujillanos FC beat Deportivo La Guaira 2-1 in Primera División on October 20, 2020.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Socialista in Puerto Cabello.