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Trujillanos FC vs Bolívar — Segunda División 2018

Trujillanos FC
Trujillanos FCadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bolívar
Bolívar
Unknown 11'
6/4/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio José Alberto Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Trujillanos FC53%
×Draw28%
Bolívar19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trujillanos FC
1.40
Bolívar
0.72

Trujillanos FC creates 94% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 55 away

creates per match

Trujillanos FC
1.43
Bolívar
0.67

allows per match

Trujillanos FC
0.77
Bolívar
1.36

finishing

Trujillanos FC+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillanos FC ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Trujillanos FC or draw
81%
Trujillanos FC or Bolívar
72%
Draw or Bolívar
47%

Winning margin

Trujillanos FC wins by 2+
26%
Bolívar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Trujillanos FC 1+ goals
75%
Trujillanos FC 2+ goals
41%
Trujillanos FC 3+ goals
17%
Bolívar 1+ goals
51%
Bolívar 2+ goals
16%
Bolívar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Trujillanos FC (draw refunded)
73%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trujillanos FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.77 · 56 matches

Bolívar away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trujillanos FC attack 1.43 + Bolívar defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bolívar attack 0.67 + Trujillanos FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Trujillanos FC scores more
53%
level
28%
Bolívar scores more
19%

Trujillanos FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Trujillanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
52'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Trujillanos FC 1–0 Bolívar

Trujillanos FC beat Bolívar 1-0 in Segunda División on June 4, 2023.

Goals: ? (11').

The match was played at Estadio José Alberto Pérez in Valera.