Bolívar 2–0 Trujillanos FC: Result & Stats

Bolívar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Trujillanos FC

Unknown 90+6'

A. Gomez 16'

6/10/2023

Segunda División · Apertura - Quarter-finalsCTE Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Bolívar40%

×Draw31%

Trujillanos FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolívarExpected goals in this matchTrujillanos FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.85

Bolívar

1.06

Trujillanos FC

0.85

Bolívar creates 25% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 57 away

1.38

creates per match

0.79

0.91

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Bolívar

1.38

Trujillanos FC

0.79

allows per match

Bolívar

0.91

Trujillanos FC

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par

Trujillanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Trujillanos FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw

71%

Bolívar or Trujillanos FC

69%

Draw or Trujillanos FC

60%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+

16%

Trujillanos FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals

65%

Bolívar 2+ goals

29%

Bolívar 3+ goals

9%

Trujillanos FC 1+ goals

57%

Trujillanos FC 2+ goals

21%

Trujillanos FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)

58%

Trujillanos FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 56 matches

Trujillanos FC away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 1.38 + Trujillanos FC defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.06

Trujillanos FC attack 0.79 + Bolívar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bolívar scores more

40%

level

31%

Trujillanos FC scores more

29%

Bolívar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

A. Gomez

90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff