True Democracy 1–1 Attram de Visser: Result & Stats

True Democracy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Attram de Visser

1/11/2026

Division One League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

True Democracy32%

×Draw29%

Attram de Visser39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

True DemocracyExpected goals in this matchAttram de Visser

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.20

True Democracy

1.06

Attram de Visser

1.20

Attram de Visser creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.33

creates per match

1.67

0.73

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

True Democracy

1.33

Attram de Visser

1.67

allows per match

True Democracy

0.73

Attram de Visser

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

True Democracy+0.00on par

Attram de Visser+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

True Democracy ↓

Attram de Visser →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

True Democracy or draw

61%

True Democracy or Attram de Visser

71%

Draw or Attram de Visser

68%

Winning margin

True Democracy wins by 2+

12%

Attram de Visser wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

True Democracy 1+ goals

65%

True Democracy 2+ goals

29%

True Democracy 3+ goals

9%

Attram de Visser 1+ goals

70%

Attram de Visser 2+ goals

34%

Attram de Visser 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

True Democracy (draw refunded)

45%

Attram de Visser (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

True Democracy at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Attram de Visser away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

True Democracy attack 1.33 + Attram de Visser defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Attram de Visser attack 1.67 + True Democracy defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

True Democracy scores more

32%

level

29%

Attram de Visser scores more

39%

Attram de Visser at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Attram de Visser will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff