Trstenik PPT 5–3 Radnički Svilajnac: Result & Stats

Trstenik PPT

FT

5 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Radnički Svilajnac

10/5/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 9Stadion SC Trstenik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Trstenik PPT46%

×Draw25%

Radnički Svilajnac29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trstenik PPTExpected goals in this matchRadnički Svilajnac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.20

Trstenik PPT

1.58

Radnički Svilajnac

1.20

Trstenik PPT creates 32% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 78 away

1.63

creates per match

1.37

1.02

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Trstenik PPT

1.63

Radnički Svilajnac

1.37

allows per match

Trstenik PPT

1.02

Radnički Svilajnac

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trstenik PPT+0.00on par

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trstenik PPT ↓

Radnički Svilajnac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Trstenik PPT or draw

71%

Trstenik PPT or Radnički Svilajnac

75%

Draw or Radnički Svilajnac

54%

Winning margin

Trstenik PPT wins by 2+

24%

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Trstenik PPT 1+ goals

79%

Trstenik PPT 2+ goals

47%

Trstenik PPT 3+ goals

21%

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals

70%

Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals

34%

Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Trstenik PPT (draw refunded)

61%

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trstenik PPT at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Radnički Svilajnac away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trstenik PPT attack 1.63 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Radnički Svilajnac attack 1.37 + Trstenik PPT defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Trstenik PPT scores more

46%

level

25%

Radnički Svilajnac scores more

29%

Trstenik PPT at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Trstenik PPT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff