Radnički Svilajnac 2–2 Trstenik PPT: Result & Stats

Radnički Svilajnac

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Trstenik PPT

5/4/2025

Srpska Liga - East · East - 24Stadion Bojača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Radnički Svilajnac60%

×Draw21%

Trstenik PPT19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički SvilajnacExpected goals in this matchTrstenik PPT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.12

Radnički Svilajnac

2.12

Trstenik PPT

1.12

Radnički Svilajnac creates 89% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 58 away

2.23

creates per match

1.14

1.10

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Radnički Svilajnac

2.23

Trstenik PPT

1.14

allows per match

Radnički Svilajnac

1.10

Trstenik PPT

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Trstenik PPT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Svilajnac ↓

Trstenik PPT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Radnički Svilajnac or draw

81%

Radnički Svilajnac or Trstenik PPT

79%

Draw or Trstenik PPT

40%

Winning margin

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+

37%

Trstenik PPT wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals

88%

Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals

62%

Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals

35%

Trstenik PPT 1+ goals

67%

Trstenik PPT 2+ goals

31%

Trstenik PPT 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)

76%

Trstenik PPT (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Svilajnac at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Trstenik PPT away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Svilajnac attack 2.23 + Trstenik PPT defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Trstenik PPT attack 1.14 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Radnički Svilajnac scores more

60%

level

21%

Trstenik PPT scores more

19%

Radnički Svilajnac at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff