Trstenik PPT vs Moravac Mrštane — Srpska Liga - East 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 28+ matches
Trstenik PPT77%
Moravac Mrštane9%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Trstenik PPT creates 219% more chances
Season form · 56 home / 28 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over72
- Under28
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Trstenik PPT ↓
Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Trstenik PPT at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches
Moravac Mrštane away — creates 0.79, concedes 4.18 · 28 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Trstenik PPT attack 1.63 + Moravac Mrštane defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.90
Moravac Mrštane attack 0.79 + Trstenik PPT defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 77%?"
Trstenik PPT at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 77% does not mean "Trstenik PPT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Jagodina
Budućnost Popovac
Sinđelić
Toplicanin Prokuplje
SFS Borac
Vlasina
Timočanin
RadanMoravac Mrštane
Dunav Prahovo
Car Konstantin
Dubočica
Rembas
Jedinstvo BošnjaceTrstenik PPT
Temnic 1924If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Trstenik PPT host Moravac Mrštane on Wednesday, 28 April 2021 at 14:30. The match is part of the Srpska Liga - East 2019/2020 season.
Srpska Liga - East: Trstenik PPT 7–0 Moravac Mrštane
Trstenik PPT beat Moravac Mrštane 7-0 in Srpska Liga - East on April 28, 2021.
The match was played at Stadion SC Trstenik in Trstenik.