Moravac Mrštane 2–5 Trstenik PPT: Result & Stats

Moravac Mrštane

FT

2 – 5

Trstenik PPT

10/10/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 12SC Orion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Moravac Mrštane28%

×Draw21%

Trstenik PPT51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moravac MrštaneExpected goals in this matchTrstenik PPT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

2.18

Moravac Mrštane

1.59

Trstenik PPT

2.18

Trstenik PPT creates 37% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 58 away

1.19

creates per match

1.14

3.22

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Moravac Mrštane

1.19

Trstenik PPT

1.14

allows per match

Moravac Mrštane

3.22

Trstenik PPT

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Trstenik PPT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moravac Mrštane ↓

Trstenik PPT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Moravac Mrštane or draw

49%

Moravac Mrštane or Trstenik PPT

79%

Draw or Trstenik PPT

72%

Winning margin

Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+

13%

Trstenik PPT wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals

80%

Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals

47%

Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals

21%

Trstenik PPT 1+ goals

89%

Trstenik PPT 2+ goals

64%

Trstenik PPT 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)

36%

Trstenik PPT (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moravac Mrštane at home — creates 1.19, concedes 3.22 · 27 matches

Trstenik PPT away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moravac Mrštane attack 1.19 + Trstenik PPT defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Trstenik PPT attack 1.14 + Moravac Mrštane defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Moravac Mrštane scores more

28%

level

21%

Trstenik PPT scores more

51%

Trstenik PPT at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Trstenik PPT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff