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Trosa-Vagnhärad SK vs Syrianska FC — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
6/11/2022Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 12Häradsvallen A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK40%
×Draw22%
Syrianska FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.85
Syrianska FC
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 73 away

creates per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.85
Syrianska FC
1.73

allows per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.88
Syrianska FC
1.86

finishing

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par
Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK ↓

Syrianska FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or draw
62%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or Syrianska FC
78%
Draw or Syrianska FC
60%

Winning margin

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+
21%
Syrianska FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals
84%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals
55%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals
28%
Syrianska FC 1+ goals
83%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
54%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)
51%
Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.86 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.85 + Syrianska FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

Syrianska FC attack 1.73 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more
40%
level
22%
Syrianska FC scores more
38%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trosa-Vagnhärad SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1–5 Syrianska FC

Syrianska FC beat Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 5-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Häradsvallen A in Vagnhärad.