Syrianska FC 2–2 Trosa-Vagnhärad SK: Result & Stats

Syrianska FC

FT

2 – 2

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

7/11/2021

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 5Södertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Syrianska FC57%

×Draw20%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Syrianska FCExpected goals in this matchTrosa-Vagnhärad SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.39

Syrianska FC

2.29

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.39

Syrianska FC creates 65% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 34 away

1.82

creates per match

1.26

1.51

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Syrianska FC

1.82

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.26

allows per match

Syrianska FC

1.51

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw

77%

Syrianska FC or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

80%

Draw or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

43%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

36%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

90%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

66%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

40%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals

75%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals

40%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

72%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.82 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.29

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.26 + Syrianska FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Syrianska FC scores more

57%

level

20%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more

23%

Syrianska FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Syrianska FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff