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Trosa-Vagnhärad SK vs Enskede — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Enskede
Enskede
4/23/2022Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 4Häradsvallen KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK45%
×Draw22%
Enskede33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.98
Enskede
1.67

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK creates 19% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 52 away

creates per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.85
Enskede
1.46

allows per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.88
Enskede
2.10

finishing

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par
Enskede+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK ↓

Enskede →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or draw
67%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or Enskede
78%
Draw or Enskede
55%

Winning margin

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+
25%
Enskede wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals
86%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals
59%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals
31%
Enskede 1+ goals
81%
Enskede 2+ goals
50%
Enskede 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)
58%
Enskede (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

Enskede away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.85 + Enskede defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.98

Enskede attack 1.46 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more
45%
level
22%
Enskede scores more
33%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Trosa-Vagnhärad SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2–2 Enskede

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK and Enskede drew 2-2 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Häradsvallen KG in Vagnhärad.