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Enskede vs Trosa-Vagnhärad SK — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Enskede
Enskede
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
8/14/2022Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 17Enskede IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Enskede60%
×Draw20%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enskede
2.29
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.25

Enskede creates 83% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Enskede
1.83
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.26

allows per match

Enskede
1.23
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
2.76

finishing

Enskede+0.00on par
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enskede ↓

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Enskede or draw
80%
Enskede or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
80%
Draw or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
40%

Winning margin

Enskede wins by 2+
38%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Enskede 1+ goals
90%
Enskede 2+ goals
66%
Enskede 3+ goals
40%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals
71%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals
36%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Enskede (draw refunded)
75%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enskede at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enskede attack 1.83 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.29

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.26 + Enskede defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Enskede scores more
60%
level
20%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more
20%

Enskede at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Enskede will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Enskede 3–0 Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

Enskede beat Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Enskede IP 1 in Stockholm.