Tropezón 0–2 Textil Escudo: Result & Stats

Tropezón

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Textil Escudo

8/24/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Campo Municipal Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Tropezón61%

×Draw23%

Textil Escudo17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TropezónExpected goals in this matchTextil Escudo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.83

Tropezón

1.82

Textil Escudo

0.83

Tropezón creates 119% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 56 away

1.73

creates per match

0.88

0.78

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Tropezón

1.73

Textil Escudo

0.88

allows per match

Tropezón

0.78

Textil Escudo

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tropezón+0.00on par

Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tropezón ↓

Textil Escudo →

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tropezón or draw

83%

Tropezón or Textil Escudo

77%

Draw or Textil Escudo

39%

Winning margin

Tropezón wins by 2+

35%

Textil Escudo wins by 2+

Team goals

Tropezón 1+ goals

84%

Tropezón 2+ goals

54%

Tropezón 3+ goals

27%

Textil Escudo 1+ goals

56%

Textil Escudo 2+ goals

20%

Textil Escudo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tropezón (draw refunded)

78%

Textil Escudo (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tropezón at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tropezón attack 1.73 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.82

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Tropezón defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tropezón scores more

61%

level

23%

Textil Escudo scores more

17%

Tropezón at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tropezón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff