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Textil Escudo vs Tropezón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tropezón
Tropezón
1/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Estadio Juan María Parés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Textil Escudo33%
×Draw27%
Tropezón40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Textil Escudo
1.14
Tropezón
1.29

Tropezón creates 13% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 94 away

creates per match

Textil Escudo
1.19
Tropezón
1.55

allows per match

Textil Escudo
1.03
Tropezón
1.09

finishing

Textil Escudo+0.00on par
Tropezón+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Textil Escudo ↓

Tropezón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Textil Escudo or draw
60%
Textil Escudo or Tropezón
73%
Draw or Tropezón
67%

Winning margin

Textil Escudo wins by 2+
13%
Tropezón wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Textil Escudo 1+ goals
68%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
32%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
11%
Tropezón 1+ goals
72%
Tropezón 2+ goals
37%
Tropezón 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
45%
Tropezón (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Textil Escudo at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Tropezón away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Textil Escudo attack 1.19 + Tropezón defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Tropezón attack 1.55 + Textil Escudo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Textil Escudo scores more
33%
level
27%
Tropezón scores more
40%

Tropezón at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tropezón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Textil Escudo 0–1 Tropezón

Tropezón beat Textil Escudo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Juan María Parés in Cabezón de La Sal.