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Tropezón vs Ribamontán al Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Tropezón
Tropezón
CANC
22:00
Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 38Campo Municipal Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Tropezón61%
×Draw22%
Ribamontán al Mar17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tropezón
1.86
Ribamontán al Mar
0.87

Tropezón creates 114% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 28 away

creates per match

Tropezón
1.73
Ribamontán al Mar
0.96

allows per match

Tropezón
0.78
Ribamontán al Mar
2.00

finishing

Tropezón+0.00on par
Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tropezón ↓

Ribamontán al Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tropezón or draw
83%
Tropezón or Ribamontán al Mar
78%
Draw or Ribamontán al Mar
39%

Winning margin

Tropezón wins by 2+
36%
Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tropezón 1+ goals
84%
Tropezón 2+ goals
55%
Tropezón 3+ goals
28%
Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
58%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
22%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tropezón (draw refunded)
78%
Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tropezón at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Ribamontán al Mar away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tropezón attack 1.73 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.96 + Tropezón defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tropezón scores more
61%
level
22%
Ribamontán al Mar scores more
17%

Tropezón at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tropezón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tropezón face Ribamontán al Mar (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 returns with Tropezón hosting Ribamontán al Mar. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tropezón host Ribamontán al Mar at Campo Municipal Santa Ana.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.