Ribamontán al Mar 0–3 Tropezón: Result & Stats

Ribamontán al Mar

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Tropezón

1/4/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Estadio Baceñuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ribamontán al Mar20%

×Draw25%

Tropezón56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ribamontán al MarExpected goals in this matchTropezón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.64

Ribamontán al Mar

0.86

Tropezón

1.64

Tropezón creates 91% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 94 away

0.63

creates per match

1.55

1.73

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Ribamontán al Mar

0.63

Tropezón

1.55

allows per match

Ribamontán al Mar

1.73

Tropezón

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par

Tropezón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribamontán al Mar ↓

Tropezón →

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ribamontán al Mar or draw

44%

Ribamontán al Mar or Tropezón

75%

Draw or Tropezón

80%

Winning margin

Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+

Tropezón wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals

58%

Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals

21%

Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals

Tropezón 1+ goals

81%

Tropezón 2+ goals

49%

Tropezón 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)

26%

Tropezón (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ribamontán al Mar at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Tropezón away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.63 + Tropezón defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.86

Tropezón attack 1.55 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ribamontán al Mar scores more

20%

level

25%

Tropezón scores more

56%

Tropezón at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tropezón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff