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Tropezón vs Gama — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Tropezón
Tropezón
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gama
Gama
10/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Campo Municipal Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Tropezón61%
×Draw22%
Gama17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tropezón
1.88
Gama
0.89

Tropezón creates 111% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 32 away

creates per match

Tropezón
1.73
Gama
1.00

allows per match

Tropezón
0.78
Gama
2.03

finishing

Tropezón+0.00on par
Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tropezón ↓

Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tropezón or draw
83%
Tropezón or Gama
78%
Draw or Gama
39%

Winning margin

Tropezón wins by 2+
36%
Gama wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tropezón 1+ goals
85%
Tropezón 2+ goals
56%
Tropezón 3+ goals
29%
Gama 1+ goals
59%
Gama 2+ goals
22%
Gama 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tropezón (draw refunded)
78%
Gama (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tropezón at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Gama away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.03 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tropezón attack 1.73 + Gama defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.88

Gama attack 1.00 + Tropezón defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tropezón scores more
61%
level
22%
Gama scores more
17%

Tropezón at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tropezón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tropezón vs Gama

Tropezón beat Gama 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Santa Ana in Torrelavega.