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Gama vs Tropezón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Gama
Gama
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Tropezón
Tropezón
2/11/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Estadio Santa María

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Gama26%
×Draw26%
Tropezón49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gama
1.04
Tropezón
1.54

Tropezón creates 48% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 94 away

creates per match

Gama
1.00
Tropezón
1.55

allows per match

Gama
1.53
Tropezón
1.09

finishing

Gama+0.00on par
Tropezón+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gama ↓

Tropezón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gama or draw
51%
Gama or Tropezón
74%
Draw or Tropezón
74%

Winning margin

Gama wins by 2+
9%
Tropezón wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Gama 1+ goals
65%
Gama 2+ goals
28%
Gama 3+ goals
9%
Tropezón 1+ goals
79%
Tropezón 2+ goals
45%
Tropezón 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gama (draw refunded)
34%
Tropezón (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gama at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

Tropezón away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gama attack 1.00 + Tropezón defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Tropezón attack 1.55 + Gama defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gama scores more
26%
level
26%
Tropezón scores more
49%

Tropezón at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tropezón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gama vs Tropezón

Tropezón beat Gama 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Santa María in Bárcena de Cicero.