Tromso 3–1 Bryne: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Tromso

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bryne

J. Hjerto-Dahl 58'

V. Erlien 55', 45' (pen)

D. Moreira 52'

7/20/2025

Eliteserien · Round 14Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Tromso55%

×Draw23%

Bryne21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchBryne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.00

Tromso

1.76

Bryne

1.00

Tromso creates 76% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

1.76

creates per match

0.91

1.09

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Tromso

1.76

Bryne

0.91

allows per match

Tromso

1.09

Bryne

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Tromso+0.00on par

Bryne+0.09on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Bryne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

79%

Tromso or Bryne

77%

Draw or Bryne

45%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

31%

Bryne wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

83%

Tromso 2+ goals

52%

Tromso 3+ goals

26%

Bryne 1+ goals

63%

Bryne 2+ goals

26%

Bryne 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

72%

Bryne (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

Bryne away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.76 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.76 + Bryne defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.76

Bryne attack 0.91 + Tromso defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tromso scores more

55%

level

23%

Bryne scores more

21%

Tromso at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

V. Erlien

Tromso · F

8.5

Match Events

17'

R. Kristiansen← R. Norheim

25'

Mats Selmer Thornes

26'

Vetle Skjaervik

44'

Lars Erik Sødal

45'

V. ErlienPenalty

46'

Jens Berland Husebø

46'

S. Norheim← J. Haahr

52'

D. Moreira↳ E. Saunes

55'

V. Erlien↳ Ieltsin Camoes

58'

J. Hjerto-Dahl↳ D. Edvardsson

60'

S. Bojadzic← D. Moreira

61'

A. Jenssen← V. Skjaervik

61'

J. Tveita← M. Thornes

61'

K. Haland← J. Husebo

71'

C. Landu-Landu← N. Strunck

86'

D. Braut← V. Erlien

86'

H. Larsen← Ieltsin Camoes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoBryne

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots10

2.31Expected Goals (xG)0.72

5Corners3

9Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots10

6On Target6

4Off Target2

2Blocked2

7Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

553Total Passes515

472Accurate Passes430

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls7

1Yellow Cards3

Eliteserien: Tromso 3–1 Bryne

Tromso beat Bryne 3-1 in Eliteserien on July 20, 2025.

Goals: V. Erlien (45' pen, 55'), D. Moreira (52'), J. Hjerto-Dahl (58').

Tromso controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromso.

Tromso vs Bryne — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Tromso 3–1 Bryne