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Bryne vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Bryne
Bryne
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tromso
Tromso
D. Braut 81'
L. O. Larsen 9'
9/14/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 21Bryne Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Bryne45%
×Draw24%
Tromso31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bryne
1.65
Tromso
1.32

Bryne creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bryne
1.66
Tromso
1.31

allows per match

Bryne
1.33
Tromso
1.65

finishing

Bryne-0.28scores less
Tromso-0.01on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bryne ↓

Tromso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bryne or draw
69%
Bryne or Tromso
76%
Draw or Tromso
55%

Winning margin

Bryne wins by 2+
23%
Tromso wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bryne 1+ goals
81%
Bryne 2+ goals
49%
Bryne 3+ goals
23%
Tromso 1+ goals
73%
Tromso 2+ goals
38%
Tromso 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bryne (draw refunded)
60%
Tromso (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bryne at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.65 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bryne attack 1.66 + Tromso defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Tromso attack 1.31 + Bryne defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bryne scores more
45%
level
24%
Tromso scores more
31%

Bryne at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bryne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
I. VadebuTromsoTromso · D
8.0

Match Events

9'
L. O. Larsen↳ J. Hjerto-Dahl
35'
Jesper Gregersen
46'
C. Landu-Landu← J. Gregersen
46'
D. Gaye← L. Qvigstad
63'
V. Erlien← L. O. Larsen
65'
A. Skovgaard← R. Thellufsen
65'
A. Scriven← M. Grodem
72'
J. Husebo← A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd
79'
K. Haland← N. Strunck
79'
D. Braut← Ieltsin Camoes
81'
D. Braut↳ V. Erlien

Possession

52%Bryne

Shots

4Bryne

Pass accuracy

51%Bryne

Statistics

BryneTromso
Overview
52%Possession48%
4Total Shots8
0.41Expected Goals (xG)1.46
2Corners5
8Fouls10
Shots
4Total Shots8
2On Target4
0Off Target4
2Blocked0
2Inside Box7
2Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
571Total Passes521
472Accurate Passes420
83%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0

Match Recap: Bryne vs Tromso

Tromso beat Bryne 2-0 in Eliteserien on September 14, 2025.

Goals: L. O. Larsen (9'), D. Braut (81').

Bryne controlled possession (52%) and registered 4 shots to 8.

The match was played at Bryne Stadion in Bryne.