Tromso 1–2 Aalesund: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Tromso

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Aalesund

V. Erlien 52'

H. Hammer 89'

M. Karlsbakk 45+2' (pen)

10/8/2023

Eliteserien · Round 24Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Tromso58%

×Draw21%

Aalesund22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.21

Tromso

2.10

Aalesund

1.21

Tromso creates 74% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 11 away

1.75

creates per match

1.26

1.16

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Tromso

1.75

Aalesund

1.26

allows per match

Tromso

1.16

Aalesund

2.46

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Tromso+0.05on par

Aalesund-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

78%

Tromso or Aalesund

79%

Draw or Aalesund

42%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

35%

Aalesund wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

88%

Tromso 2+ goals

62%

Tromso 3+ goals

35%

Aalesund 1+ goals

70%

Aalesund 2+ goals

34%

Aalesund 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

73%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.16 · 30 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.46 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.75 + Aalesund defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.10

Aalesund attack 1.26 + Tromso defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tromso scores more

58%

level

21%

Aalesund scores more

22%

Tromso at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Antonsen

Tromso · D

7.7

Match Events

40'

Erlend Segberg

45+1'

Christophe Psyche

45'

Bjorn Martin Kristensen

45'

Bjorn Martin KristensenPenalty confirmed

45+2'

M. KarlsbakkPenalty

52'

V. Erlien↳ K. Antonsen

66'

E. Diouf← Y. Paintsil

66'

L. Nordås← M. Traoré

73'

John Kitolano

80'

E. Moses← B. Kristensen

80'

I. Atanga← H. Melland

84'

Lasse Selvåg Nordås

89'

H. Hammer

90'

F. Winther← J. Romsaas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoAalesund

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots12

1.61Expected Goals (xG)1.62

3Corners5

15Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots12

5On Target4

7Off Target2

1Blocked6

9Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

495Total Passes379

385Accurate Passes279

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1