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Tromso vs Aalesund — Eliteserien 2026

Tromso
Tromso
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Aalesund
Aalesund
11/13/2022EliteserienEliteserien · Round 30Alfheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Tromso58%
×Draw21%
Aalesund21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromso
2.11
Aalesund
1.18

Tromso creates 79% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

creates per match

Tromso
1.76
Aalesund
1.26

allows per match

Tromso
1.09
Aalesund
2.46

finishing

Tromso+0.00on par
Aalesund-0.17scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Aalesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tromso or draw
79%
Tromso or Aalesund
79%
Draw or Aalesund
42%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+
36%
Aalesund wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals
88%
Tromso 2+ goals
62%
Tromso 3+ goals
35%
Aalesund 1+ goals
69%
Aalesund 2+ goals
33%
Aalesund 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)
74%
Aalesund (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.46 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.76 + Aalesund defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.11

Aalesund attack 1.26 + Tromso defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tromso scores more
58%
level
21%
Aalesund scores more
21%

Tromso at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tromso vs Aalesund

Tromso and Aalesund drew 2-2 in Eliteserien on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Alfheim Stadion in Tromsø.