Tromsdalen Uil 3–2 Strommen: Result & Stats

Tromsdalen Uil

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Strommen

E. Skogvoll 34', 5'

T. Hafstad 15'

M. Sundberg 59'

M. Myrmo 30'

5/26/2024

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8TUIL Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Tromsdalen Uil50%

×Draw22%

Strommen27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tromsdalen UilExpected goals in this matchStrommen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.37

Tromsdalen Uil

1.92

Strommen

1.37

Tromsdalen Uil creates 40% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 39 away

2.38

creates per match

1.64

1.10

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Tromsdalen Uil

2.38

Strommen

1.64

allows per match

Tromsdalen Uil

1.10

Strommen

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Strommen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsdalen Uil ↓

Strommen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Tromsdalen Uil or draw

73%

Tromsdalen Uil or Strommen

78%

Draw or Strommen

50%

Winning margin

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+

28%

Strommen wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals

85%

Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals

57%

Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals

30%

Strommen 1+ goals

75%

Strommen 2+ goals

40%

Strommen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)

65%

Strommen (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsdalen Uil at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.10 · 58 matches

Strommen away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsdalen Uil attack 2.38 + Strommen defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.92

Strommen attack 1.64 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tromsdalen Uil scores more

50%

level

22%

Strommen scores more

27%

Tromsdalen Uil at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tromsdalen Uil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

15'

20'

30'

34'

46'

I. Selnes← C. Breivik

59'

M. Sundberg

62'

J. Kristengård← M. Myrmo

63'

D. Hafstad← E. Skogvoll

77'

S. Pedersen← E. Egerton

78'

81'

83'

83'

83'

83'

88'

90'

90'

J. Weber← E. Ness

Tromsdalen

Strommen

1

20

5

8

2

▼

22

4

7

23

⚽

▼

Myrmo

6

Solberg

11

⚽

40

6

4

24

▼

Breivik

8

⚽2

▼

23

32

22

10

▼

Egerton

5

⚽

Hafstad

21

▼

Ness

Manager: A. Samuelsen

46'▲I. Selnes←▼C. Breivik

63'▲D. Hafstad←▼E. Skogvoll

77'▲S. Pedersen←▼E. Egerton

90'▲J. Weber←▼E. Ness

Tromsdalen Uil substitutes

20Selnes9Hafstad14Pedersen15Weber1Kamsvåg3Haugen7Swaleh19Pedersen27Celius

Manager: Ø. Heiberg

62'▲J. Kristengård←▼M. Myrmo

81'▲A. Nord←▼S. Rindal

Strommen substitutes

14Kristengård16Nord12Christensen17Getz25Aronsen33Nilsen

2. Division - Group 2: Tromsdalen Uil 3–2 Strommen

Tromsdalen Uil beat Strommen 3-2 in 2. Division - Group 2 on May 26, 2024.

Goals: E. Skogvoll (5', 34'), T. Hafstad (15'), M. Myrmo (30'), M. Sundberg (59').

The match was played at TUIL Arena in Tromsø.

Tromsdalen Uil vs Strommen — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 2: Tromsdalen Uil 3–2 Strommen