Strommen 1–0 Tromsdalen Uil: Result & Stats

Strommen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tromsdalen Uil

A. Nord 57'

9/29/2024

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Strømmen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Strommen56%

×Draw21%

Tromsdalen Uil23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrommenExpected goals in this matchTromsdalen Uil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.31

Strommen

2.11

Tromsdalen Uil

1.31

Strommen creates 61% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 58 away

2.38

creates per match

1.60

1.03

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Strommen

2.38

Tromsdalen Uil

1.60

allows per match

Strommen

1.03

Tromsdalen Uil

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strommen+0.00on par

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strommen ↓

Tromsdalen Uil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Strommen or draw

77%

Strommen or Tromsdalen Uil

79%

Draw or Tromsdalen Uil

44%

Winning margin

Strommen wins by 2+

33%

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Strommen 1+ goals

88%

Strommen 2+ goals

62%

Strommen 3+ goals

35%

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals

73%

Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals

38%

Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Strommen (draw refunded)

70%

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strommen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

Tromsdalen Uil away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.84 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strommen attack 2.38 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.11

Tromsdalen Uil attack 1.60 + Strommen defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Strommen scores more

56%

level

21%

Tromsdalen Uil scores more

23%

Strommen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Strommen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

45+4'

57'

64'

70'

70'

70'

D. Hafstad← A. Pedersen

70'

P. Johansen← E. Skogvoll

73'

N. Solberg

73'

J. Bruusgaard

80'

K. Swaleh← C. Breivik

80'

S. Pedersen← T. Hafstad

83'

M. Aadnøy← N. Solberg

87'

J. Kristengard

90+2'

M. Sundberg

90+2'

M. Sundberg

90'

H. Mohr← J. Kristengård

Strommen

Tromsdalen

12

Nilsen

4

Laugsand

24

▼

Breivik

15

Weber

8

▼

23

13

17

22

5

▼

Hafstad

19

▼

Pedersen

12

Stær-Jens

77

▼

3

2

4

55

14

▼

Kristengå

16

⚽

▼

Nord

7

Bruusgaar

6

▼

Solberg

11

Sundberg

Manager: Ø. Heiberg

70'▲E. Åsvestad←▼R. Ziko

70'▲O. Housni←▼A. Nord

83'▲M. Aadnøy←▼N. Solberg

90'▲H. Mohr←▼J. Kristengård

Strommen substitutes

8Åsvestad17Housni5Aadnøy20Mohr10Achrifi25Aronsen26Henriksrud27Rogne30Kollstrom

Manager: A. Samuelsen

70'▲D. Hafstad←▼A. Pedersen

70'▲P. Johansen←▼E. Skogvoll

80'▲K. Swaleh←▼C. Breivik

80'▲S. Pedersen←▼T. Hafstad

Tromsdalen Uil substitutes

9Hafstad32Johansen7Swaleh14Pedersen1Kamsvåg3Jacobsen