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Tromsdalen Uil vs Floro — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Tromsdalen Uil
Tromsdalen Uil
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Floro
Floro
7/4/20212. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4TUIL Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Tromsdalen Uil71%
×Draw17%
Floro13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromsdalen Uil
2.56
Floro
1.00

Tromsdalen Uil creates 156% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Tromsdalen Uil
2.52
Floro
1.20

allows per match

Tromsdalen Uil
0.81
Floro
2.60

finishing

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsdalen Uil ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Tromsdalen Uil or draw
87%
Tromsdalen Uil or Floro
83%
Draw or Floro
29%

Winning margin

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+
49%
Floro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals
92%
Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals
72%
Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals
46%
Floro 1+ goals
63%
Floro 2+ goals
26%
Floro 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)
85%
Floro (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsdalen Uil at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Floro away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsdalen Uil attack 2.52 + Floro defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.56

Floro attack 1.20 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Tromsdalen Uil scores more
71%
level
17%
Floro scores more
13%

Tromsdalen Uil at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Tromsdalen Uil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 1: Tromsdalen Uil 3–0 Floro

Tromsdalen Uil beat Floro 3-0 in 2. Division - Group 1 on July 4, 2021.

The match was played at TUIL Arena in Tromsø.