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Tromsdalen Uil vs Floro — 1. Division 2018

Tromsdalen Uil
Tromsdalen Uil
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Floro
Floro
6/24/20181. Division1. Division · Round 14TUIL Arena (Tromsdalen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tromsdalen Uil45%
×Draw23%
Floro32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromsdalen Uil
1.72
Floro
1.42

Tromsdalen Uil creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tromsdalen Uil
1.37
Floro
0.73

allows per match

Tromsdalen Uil
2.10
Floro
2.07

finishing

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsdalen Uil ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tromsdalen Uil or draw
68%
Tromsdalen Uil or Floro
77%
Draw or Floro
55%

Winning margin

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+
24%
Floro wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals
82%
Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals
51%
Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals
25%
Floro 1+ goals
76%
Floro 2+ goals
41%
Floro 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)
58%
Floro (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsdalen Uil at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.10 · 30 matches

Floro away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsdalen Uil attack 1.37 + Floro defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.72

Floro attack 0.73 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tromsdalen Uil scores more
45%
level
23%
Floro scores more
32%

Tromsdalen Uil at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tromsdalen Uil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tromsdalen Uil vs Floro

Tromsdalen Uil beat Floro 1-0 in 1. Division on June 24, 2018.

The match was played at TUIL Arena (Tromsdalen).