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Tromsdalen Uil vs Brann II — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Tromsdalen Uil
Tromsdalen Uil
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Brann II
Brann II
11/4/20232. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25TUIL Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tromsdalen Uil62%
×Draw18%
Brann II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromsdalen Uil
2.54
Brann II
1.40

Tromsdalen Uil creates 81% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tromsdalen Uil
2.38
Brann II
1.69

allows per match

Tromsdalen Uil
1.10
Brann II
2.69

finishing

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par
Brann II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsdalen Uil ↓

Brann II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Tromsdalen Uil or draw
80%
Tromsdalen Uil or Brann II
82%
Draw or Brann II
38%

Winning margin

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+
41%
Brann II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals
92%
Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals
72%
Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals
46%
Brann II 1+ goals
75%
Brann II 2+ goals
41%
Brann II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)
76%
Brann II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsdalen Uil at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.10 · 58 matches

Brann II away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsdalen Uil attack 2.38 + Brann II defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.54

Brann II attack 1.69 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Tromsdalen Uil scores more
62%
level
18%
Brann II scores more
20%

Tromsdalen Uil at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Tromsdalen Uil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tromsdalen Uil vs Brann II

Brann II beat Tromsdalen Uil 1-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at TUIL Arena in Tromsø.