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Brann II vs Tromsdalen Uil — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Brann II
Brann II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Tromsdalen Uil
Tromsdalen Uil
6/5/20232. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Varden Amfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Brann II42%
×Draw21%
Tromsdalen Uil37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann II
2.08
Tromsdalen Uil
1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 58 away

creates per match

Brann II
2.31
Tromsdalen Uil
1.60

allows per match

Brann II
2.31
Tromsdalen Uil
1.84

finishing

Brann II+0.00on par
Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann II ↓

Tromsdalen Uil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Brann II or draw
63%
Brann II or Tromsdalen Uil
79%
Draw or Tromsdalen Uil
58%

Winning margin

Brann II wins by 2+
23%
Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Brann II 1+ goals
87%
Brann II 2+ goals
61%
Brann II 3+ goals
34%
Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals
86%
Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals
58%
Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Brann II (draw refunded)
53%
Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann II at home — creates 2.31, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Tromsdalen Uil away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.84 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann II attack 2.31 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.08

Tromsdalen Uil attack 1.60 + Brann II defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brann II scores more
42%
level
21%
Tromsdalen Uil scores more
37%

Brann II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brann II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brann II vs Tromsdalen Uil

Tromsdalen Uil beat Brann II 3-2 in 2. Division - Group 2 on June 5, 2023.

The match was played at Varden Amfi in Bergen.