Tromsdalen Uil 1–1 Asker: Result & Stats

Tromsdalen Uil

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Asker

T. Rekdal 58'

R. Fazi 28'

4/5/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2TUIL arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tromsdalen Uil58%

×Draw21%

Asker21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tromsdalen UilExpected goals in this matchAsker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.20

Tromsdalen Uil

2.10

Asker

1.20

Tromsdalen Uil creates 75% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

2.38

creates per match

1.29

1.10

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Tromsdalen Uil

2.38

Asker

1.29

allows per match

Tromsdalen Uil

1.10

Asker

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Asker+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsdalen Uil ↓

Asker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Tromsdalen Uil or draw

79%

Tromsdalen Uil or Asker

79%

Draw or Asker

42%

Winning margin

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+

35%

Asker wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals

88%

Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals

62%

Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals

35%

Asker 1+ goals

70%

Asker 2+ goals

34%

Asker 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)

73%

Asker (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsdalen Uil at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.10 · 58 matches

Asker away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsdalen Uil attack 2.38 + Asker defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.10

Asker attack 1.29 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tromsdalen Uil scores more

58%

level

21%

Asker scores more

21%

Tromsdalen Uil at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tromsdalen Uil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

R. Fazi

45'

D. Pettersen← J. Skulstad

46'

I. Adolfsen← U. Seferi

58'

T. Rekdal

60'

S. Pedersen← T. Hafstad

60'

S. Nilsen-Modebe← K. Swaleh

62'

J. Weber

65'

E. Adukonis← R. Sorter

65'

M. Jatta← K. Getz

76'

P. Johansen← A. Sandbukt

83'

H. Johnsgard← C. Breivik

86'

S. Emanuelsen← Y. Larsen

86'

J. Kenyi← L. Sesay

Tromsdalen

Asker

30

Hejer

5

▼

Skulstad

3

▼

Larsen

21

S.

19

Jorgensen

8

▼

Getz

14

▼

Sorter

18

Spiten-Ny

16

⚽

Fazi

20

▼

77

12

4

24

▼

Breivik

15

Weber

8

Skogvoll

13

⚽

Rekdal

17

▼

Sandbukt

22

Eliassen

7

▼

Swaleh

10

▼

Seferi

5

▼

Hafstad

Manager: A. Samuelsen

46'▲I. Adolfsen←▼U. Seferi

60'▲S. Pedersen←▼T. Hafstad

60'▲S. Nilsen-Modebe←▼K. Swaleh

76'▲P. Johansen←▼A. Sandbukt

83'▲H. Johnsgard←▼C. Breivik

Tromsdalen Uil substitutes

40Tollefsen6Hansen14Pedersen16Johnsgard19Adolfsen21Nilsen-Modebe32Johansen

Manager: R. Bredal

45'▲D. Pettersen←▼J. Skulstad

65'▲E. Adukonis←▼R. Sorter

65'▲M. Jatta←▼K. Getz

86'▲S. Emanuelsen←▼Y. Larsen

86'▲J. Kenyi←▼L. Sesay

Asker substitutes

1Normann6Pettersen10Adukonis22Emanuelsen27Kenyi42Jatta