Asker 0–1 Tromsdalen Uil: Result & Stats

Asker

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tromsdalen Uil

V. Lysvoll 39'

8/21/2022

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Føyka Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Asker40%

×Draw22%

Tromsdalen Uil37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AskerExpected goals in this matchTromsdalen Uil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.70

Asker

1.77

Tromsdalen Uil

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 58 away

1.71

creates per match

1.60

1.79

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Asker

1.71

Tromsdalen Uil

1.60

allows per match

Asker

1.79

Tromsdalen Uil

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asker+0.00on par

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asker ↓

Tromsdalen Uil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Asker or draw

63%

Asker or Tromsdalen Uil

78%

Draw or Tromsdalen Uil

60%

Winning margin

Asker wins by 2+

21%

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Asker 1+ goals

83%

Asker 2+ goals

53%

Asker 3+ goals

26%

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals

82%

Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals

51%

Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Asker (draw refunded)

52%

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asker at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

Tromsdalen Uil away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.84 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asker attack 1.71 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.77

Tromsdalen Uil attack 1.60 + Asker defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Asker scores more

40%

level

22%

Tromsdalen Uil scores more

37%

Asker at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Asker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

A. Heredia-Randen

39'

V. Lysvoll

44'

Nguen Riel Chol

56'

E. Skogvoll

62'

M. Can← R. Nguen

65'

L. Andreassen

67'

T. Aarstad← A. Heredia-Randen

70'

A. Mikkelsen← E. Skogvoll

76'

E. Hauglann Ness← V. Lysvoll

86'

L. Sesay← D. Arzani

86'

A. Løvland← A. Pedersen

90+4'

T. Aarstad

90+5'

T. Nilsen

Asker

Tromsdalen

12

14

2

19

5

8

▼

16

25

24

9

⚽

▼

Lysvoll

7

▼

24

5

2

25

▼

Arzani

3

Bordal

16

Fazi

15

▼

10

11

7

23

▼

Nguen

Manager: V. Skogheim

62'▲M. Can←▼R. Nguen

67'▲T. Aarstad←▼A. Heredia-Randen

86'▲L. Sesay←▼D. Arzani

Asker substitutes

21Can9Aarstad44Sesay6Madsen8Kadri1Paljamar22Emanuelsen43Mandel55Gabrielsen

Manager: A. Samuelsen

70'▲A. Mikkelsen←▼E. Skogvoll

76'▲E. Hauglann Ness←▼V. Lysvoll

86'▲A. Løvland←▼A. Pedersen

Tromsdalen Uil substitutes

27Mikkelsen31Ness10Løvland1Waltenberg

2. Division - Group 2: Asker 0–1 Tromsdalen Uil

Tromsdalen Uil beat Asker 1-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on August 21, 2022.

Goals: V. Lysvoll (39').

The match was played at Føyka Kunstgress in Asker.

Asker vs Tromsdalen Uil — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 2: Asker 0–1 Tromsdalen Uil