Tromsdalen Uil 4–2 Alta: Result & Stats

Tromsdalen Uil

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Alta

4/28/2024

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4TUIL Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Tromsdalen Uil63%

×Draw19%

Alta19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tromsdalen UilExpected goals in this matchAlta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.26

Tromsdalen Uil

2.42

Alta

1.26

Tromsdalen Uil creates 92% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 65 away

2.38

creates per match

1.42

1.10

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Tromsdalen Uil

2.38

Alta

1.42

allows per match

Tromsdalen Uil

1.10

Alta

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Alta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsdalen Uil ↓

Alta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Tromsdalen Uil or draw

81%

Tromsdalen Uil or Alta

81%

Draw or Alta

37%

Winning margin

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+

41%

Alta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals

91%

Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals

69%

Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals

43%

Alta 1+ goals

72%

Alta 2+ goals

36%

Alta 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)

77%

Alta (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsdalen Uil at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.10 · 58 matches

Alta away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.45 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsdalen Uil attack 2.38 + Alta defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.42

Alta attack 1.42 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tromsdalen Uil scores more

63%

level

19%

Alta scores more

19%

Tromsdalen Uil at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tromsdalen Uil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff