Alta 3–1 Tromsdalen Uil: Result & Stats

Alta

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tromsdalen Uil

11/11/2023

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26SmartDok Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alta50%

×Draw21%

Tromsdalen Uil29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltaExpected goals in this matchTromsdalen Uil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.56

Alta

2.09

Tromsdalen Uil

1.56

Alta creates 34% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 58 away

2.34

creates per match

1.60

1.52

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Alta

2.34

Tromsdalen Uil

1.60

allows per match

Alta

1.52

Tromsdalen Uil

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alta+0.00on par

Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta ↓

Tromsdalen Uil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Alta or draw

71%

Alta or Tromsdalen Uil

79%

Draw or Tromsdalen Uil

50%

Winning margin

Alta wins by 2+

29%

Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Alta 1+ goals

88%

Alta 2+ goals

62%

Alta 3+ goals

34%

Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals

79%

Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals

46%

Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Alta (draw refunded)

63%

Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.52 · 65 matches

Tromsdalen Uil away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.84 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta attack 2.34 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.09

Tromsdalen Uil attack 1.60 + Alta defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alta scores more

50%

level

21%

Tromsdalen Uil scores more

29%

Alta at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff