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Tromsø U19 vs Stabæk U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Tromsø U19
Tromsø U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Stabæk U19
Stabæk U19
3/22/2024Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 5Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tromsø U1940%
×Draw20%
Stabæk U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromsø U19
2.23
Stabæk U19
2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tromsø U19
2.39
Stabæk U19
2.56

allows per match

Tromsø U19
1.89
Stabæk U19
2.06

finishing

Tromsø U19+0.00on par
Stabæk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsø U19 ↓

Stabæk U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Tromsø U19 or draw
60%
Tromsø U19 or Stabæk U19
80%
Draw or Stabæk U19
60%

Winning margin

Tromsø U19 wins by 2+
23%
Stabæk U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tromsø U19 1+ goals
89%
Tromsø U19 2+ goals
65%
Tromsø U19 3+ goals
38%
Stabæk U19 1+ goals
89%
Stabæk U19 2+ goals
65%
Stabæk U19 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Tromsø U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Stabæk U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsø U19 at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

Stabæk U19 away — creates 2.56, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsø U19 attack 2.39 + Stabæk U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.23

Stabæk U19 attack 2.56 + Tromsø U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tromsø U19 scores more
40%
level
20%
Stabæk U19 scores more
40%

Tromsø U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tromsø U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nasjonal U19 Champions League: Tromsø U19 2–1 Stabæk U19

Tromsø U19 beat Stabæk U19 2-1 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromsø.