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Stabæk U19 vs Tromsø U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Stabæk U19
Stabæk U19
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tromsø U19
Tromsø U19
3/2/2024Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 2Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Stabæk U1964%
×Draw17%
Tromsø U1919%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabæk U19
2.71
Tromsø U19
1.42

Stabæk U19 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

Stabæk U19
3.25
Tromsø U19
1.89

allows per match

Stabæk U19
0.95
Tromsø U19
2.16

finishing

Stabæk U19+0.00on par
Tromsø U19+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabæk U19 ↓

Tromsø U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Stabæk U19 or draw
81%
Stabæk U19 or Tromsø U19
83%
Draw or Tromsø U19
36%

Winning margin

Stabæk U19 wins by 2+
43%
Tromsø U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stabæk U19 1+ goals
93%
Stabæk U19 2+ goals
75%
Stabæk U19 3+ goals
50%
Tromsø U19 1+ goals
76%
Tromsø U19 2+ goals
41%
Tromsø U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stabæk U19 (draw refunded)
78%
Tromsø U19 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabæk U19 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Tromsø U19 away — creates 1.89, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabæk U19 attack 3.25 + Tromsø U19 defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.71

Tromsø U19 attack 1.89 + Stabæk U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Stabæk U19 scores more
64%
level
17%
Tromsø U19 scores more
19%

Stabæk U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Stabæk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nasjonal U19 Champions League: Stabæk U19 4–0 Tromsø U19

Stabæk U19 beat Tromsø U19 4-0 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Nadderud Stadion in Bærum.