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Tromsø II vs Senja — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Tromsø II
Tromsø II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Senja
Senja
6/3/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 9Alfheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tromsø II67%
×Draw17%
Senja16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromsø II
2.66
Senja
1.23

Tromsø II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tromsø II
2.39
Senja
1.00

allows per match

Tromsø II
1.45
Senja
2.92

finishing

Tromsø II+0.00on par
Senja+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsø II ↓

Senja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Tromsø II or draw
84%
Tromsø II or Senja
83%
Draw or Senja
33%

Winning margin

Tromsø II wins by 2+
46%
Senja wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tromsø II 1+ goals
93%
Tromsø II 2+ goals
74%
Tromsø II 3+ goals
49%
Senja 1+ goals
71%
Senja 2+ goals
35%
Senja 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tromsø II (draw refunded)
81%
Senja (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsø II at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

Senja away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsø II attack 2.39 + Senja defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.66

Senja attack 1.00 + Tromsø II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tromsø II scores more
67%
level
17%
Senja scores more
16%

Tromsø II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Tromsø II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Tromsø II 3–0 Senja

Tromsø II beat Senja 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on June 3, 2022.

The match was played at Alfheim Stadion in Tromsø.