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Senja vs Tromsø II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Senja
Senja
FT
0 – 9
HT: 0 – 5
Tromsø II
Tromsø II
7/31/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 14Senja Storhall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Senja32%
×Draw19%
Tromsø II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senja
2.05
Tromsø II
2.52

Tromsø II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

creates per match

Senja
1.54
Tromsø II
1.81

allows per match

Senja
3.23
Tromsø II
2.56

finishing

Senja+0.00on par
Tromsø II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senja ↓

Tromsø II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Senja or draw
51%
Senja or Tromsø II
81%
Draw or Tromsø II
68%

Winning margin

Senja wins by 2+
17%
Tromsø II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Senja 1+ goals
87%
Senja 2+ goals
61%
Senja 3+ goals
33%
Tromsø II 1+ goals
92%
Tromsø II 2+ goals
71%
Tromsø II 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Senja (draw refunded)
40%
Tromsø II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senja at home — creates 1.54, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

Tromsø II away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senja attack 1.54 + Tromsø II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.05

Tromsø II attack 1.81 + Senja defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Senja scores more
32%
level
19%
Tromsø II scores more
49%

Tromsø II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tromsø II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Senja vs Tromsø II

Tromsø II beat Senja 9-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Senja Storhall in Silsand.