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Tromsø II vs Gjelleråsen — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Tromsø II
Tromsø II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
5/21/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 7Alfheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tromsø II35%
×Draw21%
Gjelleråsen44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromsø II
1.89
Gjelleråsen
2.11

Gjelleråsen creates 12% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tromsø II
2.39
Gjelleråsen
2.77

allows per match

Tromsø II
1.45
Gjelleråsen
1.38

finishing

Tromsø II+0.00on par
Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsø II ↓

Gjelleråsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Tromsø II or draw
56%
Tromsø II or Gjelleråsen
79%
Draw or Gjelleråsen
65%

Winning margin

Tromsø II wins by 2+
18%
Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Tromsø II 1+ goals
85%
Tromsø II 2+ goals
56%
Tromsø II 3+ goals
29%
Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
88%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
62%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Tromsø II (draw refunded)
45%
Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsø II at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 2.77, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsø II attack 2.39 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.89

Gjelleråsen attack 2.77 + Tromsø II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tromsø II scores more
35%
level
21%
Gjelleråsen scores more
44%

Gjelleråsen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tromsø II vs Gjelleråsen

Gjelleråsen beat Tromsø II 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Alfheim Stadion in Tromsø.