Gjelleråsen 2–10 Tromsø II: Result & Stats

Gjelleråsen

FT

2 – 10

HT: 2 – 6

Tromsø II

9/23/2022

3. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 22Li kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gjelleråsen58%

×Draw18%

Tromsø II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GjelleråsenExpected goals in this matchTromsø II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.85

1.83

Gjelleråsen

2.85

Tromsø II

1.83

Gjelleråsen creates 56% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

3.15

creates per match

1.81

1.85

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Gjelleråsen

3.15

Tromsø II

1.81

allows per match

Gjelleråsen

1.85

Tromsø II

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Tromsø II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjelleråsen ↓

Tromsø II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Gjelleråsen or draw

76%

Gjelleråsen or Tromsø II

82%

Draw or Tromsø II

42%

Winning margin

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+

39%

Tromsø II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals

94%

Gjelleråsen 2+ goals

77%

Gjelleråsen 3+ goals

53%

Tromsø II 1+ goals

84%

Tromsø II 2+ goals

54%

Tromsø II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)

71%

Tromsø II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjelleråsen at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Tromsø II away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjelleråsen attack 3.15 + Tromsø II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.85

Tromsø II attack 1.81 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gjelleråsen scores more

58%

level

18%

Tromsø II scores more

24%

Gjelleråsen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff