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Tromsø II vs Funnefoss / Vormsund — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Tromsø II
Tromsø II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
O. Ottesen 68', 59'
F. Christensen 30'
5/10/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 6Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tromsø II58%
×Draw18%
Funnefoss / Vormsund23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromsø II
2.63
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.65

Tromsø II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Tromsø II
2.62
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.60

allows per match

Tromsø II
1.69
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.65

finishing

Tromsø II+0.00on par
Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsø II ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Tromsø II or draw
77%
Tromsø II or Funnefoss / Vormsund
82%
Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund
42%

Winning margin

Tromsø II wins by 2+
38%
Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tromsø II 1+ goals
93%
Tromsø II 2+ goals
73%
Tromsø II 3+ goals
48%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
81%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
49%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tromsø II (draw refunded)
71%
Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsø II at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsø II attack 2.62 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.63

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.60 + Tromsø II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tromsø II scores more
58%
level
18%
Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
23%

Tromsø II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tromsø II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
F. Christensen
59'
O. Ottesen
68'
O. Ottesen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Tromsø II 3–0 Funnefoss / Vormsund

Tromsø II beat Funnefoss / Vormsund 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on May 10, 2025.

Goals: F. Christensen (30'), O. Ottesen (59', 68').

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromsø.